Insights

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Market Insights
March 16, 2026

Make Your Own Luck

It’s always easy, if not painful, to see how certain stocks have performed over the past few years and wish you’d invested in them sooner. But individual stock performance and market returns aren’t something anyone can predict with any certainty. Sometimes, an investor just gets lucky. Sometimes, an investor gets unlucky. Fear of getting unlucky or the hope of getting lucky can cloud an investor’s strategy in their search for that elusive pot of gold. 

The Search for the Four Leaf Clover

The younger an investor is, the more confidently they approach investing — sometimes too confidently. For example, 69% of millennials say they have the skills to outperform the market.1 This overconfidence can cause certain investors to attempt to time the market.

There is also a lottery preference among many investors for high-risk, high-reward opportunities, which can sometimes pay off, but can also backfire bigtime. Luck and myriad unforeseen factors go into which way the tides turn for any one stock or industry. And if an investor goes all in on one theme, be it crypto or tech or healthcare, thinking that’s the winning category to help them beat the market, all it takes is one shock to their chosen theme for it all to come crashing down. 

The same can be said for investors who overweight recent returns when making decisions, ignoring longer-term patterns and fundamentals in the hopes that the lucky streak will continue. Performance recency bias can make it tempting to chase those hot funds that just took off or the ones everyone is talking about. 

With TrueShares Quarterly Bull and Bear Hedge ETFs (QBUL and QBER) investors can be right even when they’re wrong. They can have luck on their side no matter what side the market is on because the funds provide directional equity market exposure without the equity market risk. QBUL seeks a positive return in up markets, while QBER is designed to target a positive return in down markets.

Make Strategy Your Lucky Charm

We all want a get rich quick scheme. That one investment that wins it big for us. We all want to be the lucky ones in the stock market. But investing isn’t about luck, it’s about strategy. And some strategies allow investors to make their own luck.

Having a diversified portfolio is one strong way to combat the risks that come with overconfidence and that risky all-or-nothing mindset. It can also take a little bit of luck out of the equation. A lot of index funds and broad market exposure ETFs provide this portfolio diversification. But what if you could take things a step further? Maybe add a little structure to the portfolio.

TrueShares has a suite of ETFs designed to take some of the luck out of investing. Volatility management strategies through structured outcome and structured income products are math-based products with intended outcomes that don’t rely on a never-ending bull run. Structured Outcome products, like the TrueShares uncapped buffer ETFs, aim to protect against the first 8-10% of losses while offering uncapped upside potential. That’s not luck, that’s strategy.

Structured Income products like the S&P Autocallable Income ETFs (PAYH and PAYM) aren’t about luck either. They’re also math-based products that establish barriers and thresholds in order to provide stable high monthly income in the majority of market scenarios while protecting the principal investment.

In investing, as in life, we’ll take all the luck we can get. But we believe investment strategies shouldn’t be based on that hope. The real pot of gold isn’t found, it’s built systematically. TrueShares’ TrueOutcome and TrueIncome ETFs can help you make your own luck.

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  1. https://pressroom.aboutschwab.com/press-releases/press-release/2025/Most-ETF-Investors-Can-Envision-Moving-to-ETF-Only-Portfolios-With-Half-Saying-It-Could-Be-in-the-Next-Five-Years/default.aspx 
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Before investing, carefully consider the TrueShares ETFs investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Specific information about TrueShares is contained in the prospectus and a summary prospectus, copies of which may be obtained by visiting www.www.true-shares.com. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest.

An investment in TrueShares is subject to numerous risks, including possible loss of principal. The ETFs are subject to the following principal risks: Authorized Participants, Market Makers, and Liquidity Providers Concentration Risk associated with ETFs; Equity Market Risk; Management Risk; Market Capitalization Risk (Large Cap; Mid Cap, Small Cap Stock); Market Risk; New Fund Risk: The Fund is a recently organized, non-diversified management investment company with no operating history. As a result, prospective investors have no track record or history on which to base their investment decision. Additionally, the Adviser has not previously managed a registered fund, which may increase the risks of investing in the Fund.

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