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Investing Amid Geopolitical Shocks
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The war in Iran has set off the largest oil market disruption in history.1 It has also created the greatest uncertainty in equity markets since the tariff-induced selloff a year ago. After four weeks of war, with gas prices roughly doubled, the S&P was down 9% from its January high.2 The Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and Dow Industrial all fell into correction territory.2 We are, once again, experiencing a highly volatile time to be invested in the stock market because of heightened geopolitical risk.
Compared to Liberation Day
The Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, 2025 was the largest shock markets faced last year and was also one of the biggest since the pandemic. Markets lost -12% in just five trading days.3 March’s drop this year was only half of what the tariff-induced selloff caused last spring and took longer to do so.2 Last year, markets only took a month and a half to recover, even while much uncertainty surrounding tariff rates remained. Forecasts for this year’s shock cannot be based on that of the previous year, but both shocks remain key case studies for why volatility management strategies matter so much for investors.
Compared to the 1973 Oil Embargo
Just as tariffs threatened to raise consumer prices in the U.S., so too does the war in Iran threaten to raise prices both domestically and globally, not just of oil but of everything oil touches. During the 1973 Oil Embargo, OPEC countries cut off sales of crude oil to the West, causing spikes in gas prices and inflation and disruption in equity markets similar to what we’re seeing today.1
The Importance of Volatility and the Rebound
When markets are hit, the drawdowns definitely do matter. But how low markets close each day is not the only metric worth looking at — volatility also matters. While the index fell an average of only 0.3% per day in the first month of the war (March 2026), the difference between each day’s high and low averaged 1.3%.2 Uncertainty has driven sentiment down and volatility up.
And then there’s the rebound. Markets recovered a lot of their losses when the two-week cease fire was announced on April 8. The impermanence of the agreement leaves lingering uncertainty, but it also signals a step in the direction that markets would like to see this conflict take.
In the 1990s, Americans only had 10-20% of their net worth tied up in equities. That number is now closer to 40%.4 So an unexpected event might lead to a bigger shock to markets. More is at stake and therefore the fear of losing one’s retirement or life savings has a greater impact on investing decisions.
This is really where volatility management strategies come in. The worst thing an investor can do is panic sell at the bottom of the market. Partial buffers against losses can help mitigate that downside risk of future shocks. A strategy focused on the rebound and capturing upside gives investors a potentially greater opportunity to regain losses than most capped strategies.
TrueShares TrueOutcome suite of ETFs have both: protection and leverage on both tails that seek to help investors weather shocks so they can stay invested through whatever volatility the world might have in store.
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To learn more about TrueShares TrueOutcome ETF strategies, visit: https://www.true-shares.com/etfs#trueoutcome
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- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-nightmare-iran-war-is-the-biggest-oil-shock-in-history-analysts-say-100051089.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/business/iran-war-stock-market-investors.html
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/now-p-500-experienced-correction-130000796.html
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-are-uniquely-vulnerable-to-iran-war-volatility-after-years-of-buying-stocks-100044862.html
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